Prediction Mania: Grammys 2006

It looks like the Black History Month posts I'm working on are going to require quite a bit of insight and reflection. While we wait for those, I've decided to post the first of three awards predictions posts under the terrible moniker "Prediction Mania." The three posts will attempt to predict the winners of the Oscars, the Razzies (yes, you read that right), and, in this first installment, the Grammys.


Record Of The Year
"We Belong Together" by Mariah Carey
"Feel Good Inc." by Gorillaz feat. De La Soul
"Boulevard Of Broken Dreams" by Green Day
"Hollaback Girl" by Gwen Stefani
"Gold Digger" by Kanye West feat. Jamie Foxx

My Thoughts: Damn, this is a tough category. You couldn't avoid any of those songs in 2005 even if you tried. "Hollaback Girl" was the rare "pop" song to cross over to R&B/Hip-Hop radio. "We Belong Together" was the perfect crossover single and even the "Best R&B and Old School" station in Chicago played "Gold Digger." In the end, though, it's really a two-person race between Kanye and Mariah.
Will Win: "We Belong Together"
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: "Feel Good Inc."
I Wish This Was Nominated: "Let Me Love You" by Mario

Album Of The Year
The Emancipation Of Mimi by Mariah Carey
Chaos And Creation In The Backyard by Paul McCartney
Love.Angel.Music.Baby by Gwen Stefani
How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb by U2
Late Registration by Kanye West

My Thoughts: Kanye wants this award bad. However, he might not get it. There are so many variables here. There's Mariah Carey's comeback album, U2's supposed "best album in years" (which was also said of Paul McCartney's album), and Gwen Stefani's "something for everyone" album. Will the Grammy voters give Kanye his wish? I think they will...but Mariah and U2 are going to be nipping at his heels.
Will Win: Late Registration
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb
I Wish These Were Nominated: Get Lifted by John Legend, Demon Days by Gorillaz, Get Behind Me Satan by The White Stripes

Song Of The Year
"Bless The Broken Road" written by Bobby Boyd, Jeff Harris, & Marcus Hummon (performed by Rascal Flatts)
"Devils And Dust" written by Bruce Springsteen (performed by Bruce Springsteen)
"Ordinary People" written by W. Adams and J. Stephens (performed by John Legend)
"Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own" written by U2 (performed by U2)
"We Belong Together" written by J. Austin, M. Carey, J. Dupri, and M. Seal (performed by Mariah Carey)

My Thoughts: "Ordinary People," like John Legend himself, was a breath of fresh air. Mariah will get Record Of The Year so I don't think they'll give this to her too. U2 could be a spoiler but otherwise, I think John Legend is getting this award.
Will Win: "Ordinary People"
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: "We Belong Together" (but barely)
I Wish This Was Nominated: I don't really know what to put here so I'll say one of the better songs from Common's Be.

Best New Artist
Ciara
Fall Out Boy
Keane
John Legend
Sugarland

My Thoughts: Lest we forget...the odds on favorite may not necessarily win this category. Kanye found this out last year. I think John Legend should win this but I expect Chicago's own Fall Out Boy to be surprised (and happy as hell) to pick up this prize.
Will Win: Fall Out Boy
It'd Be Cool If He/She Won This Instead: John Legend
I Wish He/She Was Nominated: Gwen Stefani

Producer Of The Year (Non-Classical)
Danger Mouse
Nigel Godrich
Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis
Steve Lillywhite
The Neptunes

My Thoughts: I am familiar with every producer except Steve Lillywhite and I don't think he will win. Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis may have a great catalog of work but they produced Jessica Simpson's remake of "These Boots Are Made For Walking" and that alone should disqualify them this year. The Neptunes consistently pump out interesting, club-friendly work and they helped Gwen Stefani cross over to urban audiences. I loved Danger Mouse's production on Demon Days but I don't think the Grammy voters did. Nigel Godrich is a damn good producer who helped Paul McCartney get great reviews. I'm almost at a loss to pick this one.
Will Win: The Neptunes
It'd Be Cool If He/She Won Instead: Danger Mouse
I Wish He/She Was Nominated: Kanye West, Rick Rubin

Best Rap Album
Be by Common
The Cookbook by Missy Elliott
Encore by Eminem
The Massacre by 50 Cent
Late Registration by Kanye West

My Thoughts: The Cookbook was good, but it was not as good as Missy's earlier efforts. Encore has some good songs and some godawful ones too. The Massacre has sales and although I don't think it deserved to get nominated, 50 Cent could steal this one from Kanye. Common's Be is very good but not as high-profile as Late Registration.
Will Win: Late Registration
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: Be
I Wish This Was Nominated: The Documentary by The Game

Best Contemporary R&B Album
Touch by Amerie
The Emancipation Of Mimi by Mariah Carey
Destiny Fulfilled by Destiny's Child
Turning Point by Mario
O by Omarion

My Thoughts: Both Touch and Turning Point fizzled out perceptionwise after great first singles. O is only nominated to round out the category. This really boils down to whether the Grammy voters want to honor the "farewell" of Destiny's Child or the comeback of Mariah Carey. I think they will honor Carey.
Will Win: The Emancipation Of Mimi
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: Turning Point
I Wish This Was Nominated: The Way It Is by Keyshia Cole

Best Alternative Music Album
Funeral by The Arcade Fire
Guero by Beck
Plans by Death Cab For Cutie
You Could Have It So Much Better by Franz Ferdinand
Get Behind Me Satan by The White Stripes

My Thoughts: I have to admit that I don't know this category as well as I would like. I enjoyed both Beck and The White Stripes' albums and I saw Death Cab For Cutie's album on a lot of "best of" lists. I like Franz Ferdinand but I think the peak of their buzz has passed.
Will Win: Plans
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: Guero or Get Behind Me Satan
I Wish This Was Nominated: Demon Days by Gorillaz (this is probably the best category for it...right?)

Best Rock Album
X&Y by Coldplay
In Your Honor by Foo Fighters
A Bigger Bang by The Rolling Stones
How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb by U2
Prairie Wind by Neil Young

My Thoughts: This is U2's to lose. Even though Coldplay sold a lot too, the hype surrounding their album (and the disappointment that some fans and critics felt) will keep them from winning. I don't see Foo Fighters or The Rolling Stones even threatening to beat U2. However, maybe we'll see a Neil Young upset.
Will Win: How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: X&Y
I Wish This Was Nominated: ?

Best Pop Vocal Album
Extraordinary Machine by Fiona Apple
Breakaway by Kelly Clarkson
Wildflower by Sheryl Crow
Chaos And Creation In The Backyard by Paul McCartney
Love.Angel.Music.Baby by Gwen Stefani

My Thoughts: This is an interesting array of nominees. The popularity (and longevity) of Breakaway has really surprised me. Kelly Clarkson has a very good chance at winning this category. Gwen Stefani probably won't win Album Of The Year and she probably won't win this category either. The competition is too tough (except for Sheryl Crow). The success of Extraordinary Machine in this category will depend on how many Grammy voters downloaded the bootleg version (although you know they'd never admit it that they did). Sir Paul will be performing on the Grammys for the first time as a solo artist. He's probably going to get at least one award as a result. And because he is the only male in this category and his album is a critical success, this will probably be it.
Will Win: Chaos And Creation In The Backyard
It's Be Cool If This Won Instead: Extraordinary Machine or Breakaway
I Wish This Was Nominated: Something To Be by Rob Thomas

Best Electronic/Dance Album
Push The Button by The Chemical Brothers
Human After All By Daft Punk
Palookaville by Fatboy Slim
Minimum-Maximum by Kraftwerk
LCD Soundsystem by LCD Soundsystem

My Thoughts: Does this nominee list look like an Old Boys Club or what? Every nominee except LCD Soundsystem has been making music for quite some time. Push The Button was a strong Chemical Brothers effort but it certainly didn't break any new ground. Human After All was incredibly shallow and fluffy...even for Daft Punk. Palookaville was a pretty weak album salvaged by a few good songs. I think that, barring an upset from newcomers LCD Soundsystem, Kraftwerk will take the prize.
Will Win: Minimum-Maximum
It'd Be Cool If This Won Instead: Push The Button
I Wish This Was Nominated: The Understanding by Röyksopp