Sunday, February 25, 2007

My 2007 Oscar Predictions...In Three Sentences Or Less

Every year, awards show analysis hits its peak with the Academy Awards, which air this Sunday on ABC. Articles in various magazines and on various websites tend to be long and detailed when it comes to Oscar predictions. This year, I have decided to take the opposite route.

My goal is to not only give my Oscar predictions but to also give my comments on each category as concisely as three sentences or less. I'll even try not to resort to those long, complicated sentences that contain every punctuation mark ever made. Can this normally long-winded blogger do it? Let's find out...

Best Picture

The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

My Prediction: Babel
Comments: This race is wide open so it's anybody's guess. Babel won the Golden Globe for Best Drama and has an ensemble cast. It will win even though people debate its quality just like Crash did last year.

Best Director

Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephan Frears - The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

My Prediction: Martin Scorsese
Comments: Everyone says that it's Scorsese's year to win and I agree. However, Clint spoiled his chances last time and it could happen again.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit Of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland

My Prediction: Forest Whitaker
Comments: When the right actor gets the right role at the right time, he usually gets honored. That is the role that Forest Whitaker got in playing Idi Amin. This is his chance at Oscar greatness.

Best Actress

Penélope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

My Prediction: Helen Mirren
Comments: Helen Mirren has won virtually every other award for her role, so let's just give her the Oscar already.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

My Prediction: Eddie Murphy
Comments: Great comedians only get honored if they go dramatic. Eddie put in a great performance without any latex makeup and he will get the Oscar because of it.

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

My Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
Comments: Even before anyone saw Dreamgirls, people talked up Jennifer Hudson's performance. After all the (warranted) hype, she will get the big prize.

Best Animated Feature

Happy Feet
Monster House

My Prediction: Cars
Comments: Pixar's only loss in this category was to the original Shrek so it's best not to bet against them. This would be a more interesting category if Arthur And The Invisibles had more animation in it. Its disqualification meant that there could only be three nominees in this category instead of five.

Best Documentary Feature

Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

My Prediction: An Inconvenient Truth
Comments: An Inconvenient Truth made Al Gore hip, something no one could have ever expected. It's also the most well-known film of the nominees. However, I see Jesus Camp being a possible spoiler.

Best Visual Effects

Pirates Of The Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

My Prediction: Pirates Of The Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Comments: POTC's special effects blew me away. For a while, I thought Davy Jones was an actor in heavy makeup. It should win the award.

Best Original Screenplay

Guillermo Arriaga - Babel
Iris Yamashita; story by Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis - Letters From Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo del Toro - Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan - The Queen

My Prediction: Michael Arndt
Comments: The Academy will want to honor Little Miss Sunshine somehow and this is the way they'll do it. I wouldn't be surprised if The Queen won due to the way it mixed fact and fiction.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Bayham, Dan Mazer; story by Sasha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Anthony Hines, and Todd Phillips - Borat
Alfonso Cuarón, Timothy J. Sexton, David Arata, Mark Fergus, Hawk Otsby - Children Of Men
William Monahan - The Departed
Todd Field, Tom Perrotta - Little Children
Patrick Maher - Notes On A Scandal

My Prediction: William Monahan
Comments: Monahan actually wrote a good adaptation of a Hong Kong film. Since large groups of screenwriters never win, Monahan's achievement will probably win him the Oscar.

Best Original Song

"I Need To Wake Up" music and lyrics by Melissa Etheridge - An Inconvenient Truth
"Listen" music by Henry Krieger and Scott Cutler; lyrics by Anne Preven - Dreamgirls
"Love You I Do" music by Henry Krieger; lyrics by Siedah Garrett - Dreamgirls
"Our Town" music and lyrics by Randy Newman - Cars
"Patience" music by Henry Krieger; lyrics by Willie Reale - Dreamgirls

My Prediction: "Listen"
Comments: Even though three songs are nominated from Dreamgirls, the vote won't be split. “Listen” will win but Beyonce won't win an Oscar. Why are there limits on the amount of songwriters that can be credited but no limits on the amount of screenwriters?

That's it! Did I achieve my goal or was I just shallow? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

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